Chinese Policy Research Articles

The time-varying dynamic impact of US renewable energy prices on agricultural prices in China: the case of fuel ethanol.

This paper intends to look into the time-varying dynamic impact of US fuel ethanol, one of the renewable energy sources, on the prices of agricultural products (specifically corn, soybeans, rice, and wheat) in China based on monthly price data from January 2000 to January 2023. To achieve this, a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is employed, which takes into account structural changes in emergencies through time-varying parameters. The empirical results show that the equal-interval impulse responses of price fluctuations in agricultural commodities are primarily positive to variations in fuel ethanol prices and production. And the intensity and direction of the effects vary at distinct time lags. Additionally, the magnitude of these responses is most pronounced in the short term for all agricultural commodities except for corn, and the duration of the impulse responses at different time points is generally longer for corn prices compared to other commodities. The study also reveals that the influence of US fuel ethanol on Chinese agricultural commodity prices is not substantial on the whole. Therefore, there is a necessity to advance the growth of biofuels and provide policy support and financial subsidies for agricultural products earmarked for food production. These actions could shed insights into the progression of Chinese renewable energy and food policies, ensuring the stability of the market in the long run.

Analyzing the nexus between Chinese industrial policy and cross-border M&As.

In recent years, as China experiences economic expansion and its corporations become more global, it has notably become a central hub for cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) on the world stage. The Chinese government, in tandem, leverages these international M&A operations to drive industrial transformation and progress in technology. This research investigates the role of China's industrial policies in shaping cross-border M&A activities by examining recent instances. Findings indicate that relaxing financial barriers and applying specific industrial tactics bolster companies' abilities to secure funding, consequently energizing cross-border M&A initiatives. Several firms in these international mergers and acquisitions are intricately connected to political strategies, markedly affecting the formulation of industrial policies. This assertion is corroborated through the analysis of relevant statistical evidence. The study methodically collects and scrutinizes data to quantitatively depict the current landscape and influencing elements of cross-border M&A, thus providing concrete evidence for policy and business strategy formulation.

Climate risks and the realized higher-order moments of financial markets: Evidence from China

The return distribution of energy assets deviates from the normal distribution, making volatility a partial measure of risk, and climate risk tend to affect the skewness preferences of environmentally conscious investors. However, limited evidence exists on the impact of climate risk on higher-order moments of asset returns, especially in China. Using data from December 2013 to June 2022, we study the time-varying Granger causal flow from two Chinese climate uncertainty indices (Chinese climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and Chinese climate uncertainty (CU)) to the realized high-order moments (volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) of various Chinese assets covering green energy, carbon emission allowances, and brown energy indices. The main results show evidence of time-variation in the causal flows from climate risks, without ignoring the heterogeneity between the two climate risk measures and across the three assets under study. Granger causality spans various time periods, and is generally more significant for the realized volatility. These results are robust to the specification of the time-varying causality analysis. They also remain significant when accounting for the impact of Chinese economic policy uncertainty, which further supports their robustness. These findings highlight the ability of climate risk to affect higher-order moments of asset returns through the channels of strong deviation of returns from the normal distribution, the preference of investors for skewness, and the frequent occurrence of crisis periods.

A synergistic study of policy and literature on rumor governance.

Rumor governance is an important guarantee for social stability and public safety. Based on the life cycle and crisis cycle model, this paper conducts a synergistic analysis of China's rumor governance policies and regulations and the core scientific research literature on rumor governance in WOS and CNKI. In this paper, we use the TF-IDF algorithm to count the word frequencies of 326 policy and regulation texts, the Jieba-RoBERTa-Kmeans model to cluster high-frequency keywords, and CiteSpace software and the LLR clustering algorithm are utilized to extract and cluster keywords from 391 documents in the WOS database and from 703 documents in the CNKI database. Based on the synergistic analysis of the life cycle model, it is found that the research on policies and regulations precedes the research on literature, and both are in the period of refinement.Based on the synergistic analysis using the co-occurrence comparison of subject terms in the crisis cycle model, it is found that there is a lack of research in the stages of prevention, monitoring, and governance, and this paper proposes the systematic governance mechanism and strategy for crisis resolution that conforms to the trend of life cycle evolution and is synergistic with policy and literature. This study has only selected Chinese policies and regulations, and the proposed governance strategies have not yet been verified in practice; future research can expand the scope and depth of the study and conduct empirical research and pilot projects.

Effects of ICT and Energy Transition on Sustainable Fiscal Growth: Empirical Evidence from China

It is crucial for sustainable growth policies and strategies, which are currently being used internationally, to balance the various aspects of development, including the economic, environmental, and social ones. There is currently broad agreement that energy transition and Information and communication technologies (ICT) offer fresh momentum for long-term sustainable fiscal growth. The main goal of the current research is to study the effects of energy transition and ICT on sustainable fiscal growth in China over 1995-2020 period. To empirically estimate the above mentioned nexus, the recently introduced Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (QARDL) is applied. The study findings for long run indicate that energy transition impacts sustainable fiscal growth negatively over lower qauntiles and at extreme higher quantiles. However, the ICT is found to promote sustainable fiscal growth at all quantiles. The short run dynamics also indicate that current and previous values of ICT and energy transition have significant impact on sustainable fiscal growth. The Wald test of parameter constancy rejects the null hypothesis and shows that non linear and asymmetric impact is present between sustainable fiscal growth and ICT and energy transition in the short run and the long run. Test of Quantile Granger Causality reveals  bidirectional causal association between study variables. The study recommends the Chinese government and policy makers to adopt efficient policies to promote ICT use among all the sectors of the economy that can help in achieving sustainable fiscal growth.

Does Digitalization Lead to Environmental Sustainability and Energy Efficiency in China?

In the past 20 years, there has been an increased focus on the connection between investments in  digitalization, environment, and economic growth, however the effects of digitalization on energy efficiency  in developing nations have received little attention in empirical researches. therefore, the goal of current research is to study the effect of digitalization on environmental sustainability and energy efficiency in China over 1995-2020. For this purpose, two separate models are formulated with energy efficiency and CO2 emissions as dependent variables and digitalization (measured by ICT technologies) as the explanatory variable. The study applies three time series approaches namely, Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS), and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) to empirically estimate the study objectives. The study findings show that ICT plays positive role in promoting energy efficiency and environmental sustainability as coefficient of ICT is negative in both models. It was concluded from the findings that ICT sector has positive implications in terms of energy and environment in China. The study recommends the Chinese government and policy makers to pay attention and device effective policies for promotion of ICT sector in the country.

Towards Achieving Sustainable Development in China: What Role Does Digital Technologies and Green Technologies Play?

There is always discussion about how to use digitalization to promote sustainable development. While one side vehemently defends using ICT to direct and carry out sustainable development, another strongly struggles to highlight its many drawbacks. Similarly, green technologies are also under the limelight for promoting sustainable development since these technologies combine economic growth and environmental conservation. The purpose of the study is to empirically estimate the effect of digital technologies and green technologies in sustainable development in China. Time series data spanning over 1995-2021 period is analyzed using recently introduced Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (QARDL). The findings of the study suggest that there exists positive association between digital technologies and sustainable development over (0.05-0.80) quantiles. The significant and positive association exists between green technologies and sustainable development at all quantiles (0.05-0.95). The study also finds positive and negative association of economic growth and urbanization respectively with sustainable development. The study results emphasize the limitations of conclusion of past studies and provide significant contributions by confirming that the associations among variables is quantile-dependent. The Wald test results also disprove the parameter constancy for the Chinese economy and the findings of Quantile Granger Causality prove the presence of bidirectional causal association between digital technologies, green technologies and sustainable development. The study recommends Chinese policy makers and government to adopt relevant policies to promote sustainable development by effectively utilizing digital and green technologies.

Compliance and alternative behaviors of heavy gamers in adolescents to Chinese online gaming restriction policy.

In 2021, China implemented a policy to prevent adolescents from excessive online gaming, with the goal of encouraging healthier leisure activities. Three months after this policy was implemented, we conducted a study involving 430 Chinese adolescents who regularly played online games for over two hours daily before the policy. We collected their responses to the restriction, including their compliance with the policy, engagement in undesirable alternative behaviors (e.g., watching short videos), and engagement in desirable alternative behaviors (e.g., playing sports). We also collected data on individual factors, parental technology interference, and feelings of restriction to use as predictors for behaviors, including those related to violating the restriction or watching short videos. A small percentage of heavy gamers violated the restriction by renting others' game accounts (3%) or using a family member's identity (14%), while 59% of the sample shifted to watching short videos. Heavy gamers who lived in rural areas, spent more time on online games prior to the policy, did not feel restricted from playing online games, and experienced parental technology interference were more likely to violate the restriction. Females or those lacking stable hobbies were more inclined to watch short videos. Although the policy restricted heavy gaming, it has also led to increased short video use. Policymakers could explore alternative approaches, such as developing infrastructure that supports outdoor leisure activities in rural areas, encouraging parents to model responsible technology use behaviors, and guiding adolescents to cultivate positive hobbies in their leisure time.

Unravelling the bidirectional impact of Chinese agricultural subsidy policy on agricultural efficiency and farmers' income through panel data analysis

Unravelling the bidirectional impact of Chinese agricultural subsidy policy on agricultural efficiency and farmers' income through panel data analysis

Geo-economics of China's rare earths production: Concurrent green transition and environmental vulnerability

Serving as a regional assessment of China's ongoing mining and application of REEs, this article addresses the concurrence of green transition and environmental degradation contextualized in the global sphere of the Critical Mineral mining and application. It narrates a history of China's developmental strategies for REEs mining and production since the late 1970s and addresses the environmental outcomes from the state-determined, globalized national economy and the state-initiated environmental regulations on domestic REEs mining. Focusing on a historical assessment of China's geopolitically-strategized Critical Mineral production and the high environmental cost of the REEs-based green transition, this article discusses how UN's concept of sustainable development is being indigenized in China through the Chinese state's policy practices as well as through the receptiveness of the Chinese populace, and supports the ongoing argument of just transition as an unjust energy transition creating unjustified environmental dispossession, particularly in the local societies in China and elsewhere in the world.

The impact of Chinese rice support policies on rice acreages

AbstractDeclining arable land and yield stagnation pose serious challenges to food security in China. Since 2004, the Chinese government has introduced rice support policies to stimulate rice production. A bundle of incentives, including a minimum procurement price, were introduced. Whether they were effective? Rice acreages have increased since the start of this policy, which could also result from rising rice price levels both nationally and globally. Using a natural experiment created by the minimum procurement price policy being introduced in a selected set of Chinese regions, we use a dynamic fixed effects model to perform a difference-in-differences analysis on the effectiveness of these rice support policies. We find that indica rice acreages do respond to changes in the rice prices, and, controlling for rice prices, that China’s rice support policies were effective in increasing rice acreages of both early and late indica after 2004. The paper concludes with policy implications.

Why Are PPP Projects Stagnating in China? An Evolutionary Analysis of China’s PPP Policies

The Public–Private Partnership (PPP) model has significantly contributed to global infrastructure and public service provision. The evolution of the PPP model closely aligns with policy directives. China’s PPP policy evolution has included five stages: budding (1986–2000), fluctuating (2001–2008), steady (2009–2012), expanding (2013–2018), and stagnating (2019–present). This study employs bibliometric analysis and co-word analysis to examine 407 policies enacted by the Chinese government from 1986 to 2018. By extracting policy text keywords at various stages and constructing a co-word network matrix, this study delineates the distinctive characteristics of Chinese PPP policies across different epochs. It can be found that critical areas such as “government credit”, “contract spirit”, and “power supervision” are still underappreciated. The challenges confronting China’s PPP model are multifaceted, stemming from policy gaps that have led to substantial project difficulties. Although the government proposed a new mechanism for franchising in 2023, the new mechanism is only for new PPP projects, and the difficulties of existing PPP projects have not been solved. This study advocates for enhancements in project bankability, regulatory clarity, institutional environment improvement, contract spirit defense, and the development of the PPP-REITs model to address these issues.

Uncovering heterogeneous regional impacts of Chinese monetary policy

Uncovering heterogeneous regional impacts of Chinese monetary policy

National will in the context of low fertility: exploring the Chinese childcare policies after the implementation of three-child policy

ABSTRACT The childbirth policy in China has undergone significant changes since 2016. Changes in fertility policy have led to systematic legislation in public policies in relation to childbirth and childcare. This legislation review analyzes the current central- and provincial-level policies that are in practice after the enactment of the three-child policy in 2021. The study develops a conceptual framework by combining Brewer and Smith’s (2008) policy analysis framework and An and Peng’s (2016) typologies of familialization to analyze the policy goals, stakeholders, and policy tools in central- and provincial-level childcare policies in China. The study notes that policy instruments in the child-birthing stage have appeared to promote familialization, while the legislative focus of the child-rearing stage leans more towards the capacity-building of defamilization. The study also highlights a unique emerging childcare typology in the Chinese context: knowledge familialization, which refers to childbirth and child-rearing guidance.

Can you hear me now? Identifying the effect of Chinese monetary policy announcements

Do Chinese monetary policy announcements matter? This study evaluates how relevant Chinese monetary policy announcements are to Chinese financial markets and the real side of the economy. Chinese monetary policy is identified by estimating a “target” factor measuring policy surprises and a “path” factor measuring future expectations of policy using price changes to Chinese financial derivatives on policy announcement dates. Local projection results show that 1) Chinese Treasury yields and interbank rates respond persistently, suggesting that policy transmission through an interest-rate channel exists; 2) Equities and exchange rates do not respond to policy announcements instantaneously, but with a lag; 3) Future expectations of Chinese monetary policy play a larger role than surprises, 4) Real variables show evidence of policy transmission, and 5) policy transmission may be sticky due to information frictions.

Examining Chinese Minority Education Policies

China is renowned for its rich cultural tapestry, diverse ethnic groups, and complex history. While Han Chinese make up the majority of the population, China is also home to a mosaic of 55 ethnic minorities, each with its unique customs, languages, and traditions. While they may share some similarities, each minority ethnic group has their own unique culture and language that differs from other groups and sometimes their differences have caused conflict between each other. Therefore, when writing and implementing policy for minority education, it is important to be adaptable and flexible to local conditions. The Chinese government has increasingly emphasized minority education as an important factor for social unity. In late 20th century, Premier Zhou Enlai decided to create written language for minority groups such as the Hani and Bai, while in 2020, Chairman Xi decided to shift promotion to protection by creating an online archive for minority languages and cultures such as folklore and the creation myth. This paper critically examines the effectiveness of China's bilingual education policy, teacher training initiatives, and the mechanisms of two exemptions and one subsidy for minority education in compulsory education schools in Yunnan. The study underscores the laudable intentions behind these policies while shedding light on the numerous challenges encountered during their implementation.

Chinese transport emissions reduction policies: Analysis of purchase intention and approaches to promote uptake of new energy construction dump trucks

Given the urgency of the transition to renewable energy, this study examines the challenges and opportunities associated with the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles, particularly new energy construction dump trucks, in China. Through a combination of policy analysis and empirical research, it investigates drivers' purchase intentions towards these alternative energy vehicles in a designated study area. The findings reveal that while policies aimed at encouraging adoption are in place, drivers' purchase intentions remain low due to factors such as high costs, technical concerns, inadequate infrastructure, and satisfaction with existing trucks. Specifically, the study identifies key technical challenges, including battery performance and range limitations, and advocates for a shift in policy support towards product development to address these issues. Overall, the paper highlights the need for a comprehensive approach that combines policy incentives with technological advancements to promote the widespread adoption of new energy construction dump trucks in China and achieve sustainability and carbon neutrality goals in the transportation sector.

A China-Based Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Novel Oral Anticoagulants versus Warfarin in Patients with Left Ventricular Thrombosis.

This study aims to conduct a comprehensive cost-effectiveness comparison between novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and warfarin in Chinese patients with left ventricular thrombosis (LVT). By incorporating the impact of volume-based procurement (VBP) policy for pharmaceuticals in China, this analysis intends to provide crucial insights for informed healthcare decision-making. A Markov model was employed to simulate the disease progression of LVT over a 54-week time horizon, using weekly cycles and six mutually exclusive health states. The model incorporated transition probabilities between health states calculated based on clinical trial data and literature sources. Various cost and utility parameters were also included. Additionally, a series of sensitivity analyses were conducted to address parameter variations and associated uncertainties. The study finding suggest that from the perspective of Chinese healthcare, the majority of brand-name drug (BND) NOACs generally lack cost-effectiveness when compared to warfarin. However, when considered the VBP policy, NOACs, particularly rivaroxaban, prove to be more cost-effective than warfarin. Rivaroxaban provided an additional 0.0304 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per patient and reduced overall medical costs by 9095.73 CNY, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of -298,786.20 CNY/QALY. Sensitivity analysis indicated a 78.4% probability of any NOACs being more cost-effective compared to warfarin. However, specifically considering NOACs under the VBP policy, the likelihood of them being more cost-effective approached 90%. Taking into account Chinese pharmaceutical procurement policies, the findings highlight the superior efficacy of NOACs, especially rivaroxaban, in enhancing both the quality of life and economic benefits for Chinese LVT patients. NOACs present a more cost-effective treatment option, improving patient quality of life and healthcare cost efficiency compared to warfarin.

The Impact of Chinese Land Supply Policies on the Real Estate Market

The Impact of Chinese Land Supply Policies on the Real Estate Market

Environmental Agenda in the Modern Chinese Sea Policy

The article is devoted to the study of the role of marine ecology protection in the modern political course of China. Today, the ocean has great importance in Chinese development from an economic, energy, and resource point of view. However, its benefits are threatened by the environmental problems caused by anthropogenic pressure due to the development of human society, population growth, and industry. Currently, China faces plastic, waste, and oil pollution, illegal activities leading to the depletion of food resources, increasing ocean acidification due to air pollution, and degradation of the coastal environment. Awareness of the importance of the ocean for domestic and foreign policy forces China to take measures to protect it. At the same time, since the environmental agenda in modern international relations acts both as an instrument of pressure and as a means of political rise, it is effectively used by China in the struggle for global leadership both in the environmental protection sphere and in the world in general. Using the environmental agenda as a peaceful means of rising, China seeks to transform the current global order while showing itself as a responsible world leader.